Johany Jutras/CFL
CFL.ca Staff
TORONTO — StatsGeek is a new weekly segment on CFL.ca featuring the work of league chief statistician Steve Daniel. It highlights growing trends around the league and much of the same data powering all nine CFL coaching staffs and head offices.
This edition of StatsGeek takes a closer look at rate at close results out of the gate in 2015.
StatsGeek: Close games, unexpected results
The Riders are a 24 per cent underdog this weekend in Edmonton. Can they become the next team to pull off a dramatic upset?
The outcome of a CFL football game is never easy to guess, but is 2015 taking unpredictability to new heights? Not only are point differentials closer than usual this season, but even one-sided scores have come as a surprise. Parity has been the underlying theme of this season and while it’s a nightmare for Pick’Em players, it’s made every last game difficult to predict.
It starts with the topic of parity, where it seems anyone can beat anyone. Even the 0-5 Roughriders lost their first four games by an average margin of three points (four losses by 12 points in total) — including overtime losses to BC and Toronto. As many games have gone to overtime through five weeks in 2015 as in the years 2011 to 2014 combined, a span of four seasons.
It’s this simple to break down: Eight of nine CFL teams have two or more wins, while no team has more than three. It means that eight teams are within a single win of one another. The first-place Argos and Eskimos, both at 3-1, are hardly any better than the eighth-place Bombers at 2-3. It’s early, yes, but we can only say it’s early for so long. The parity trend could be one here to stay, especially if the Riders have anything to say about it this weekend vs. Edmonton.
Yes, 2015 is only five weeks old and so far it’s had it all, from fourth-quarter comebacks (six teams have won despite trailing after three quarters, while the Argos’ comeback from down 21-0 marked the third biggest comeback for a road team in CFL history) to upsets of astronomical proportions (for example, 96 per cent of fans picked the Calgary Stampeders to defeat the Montreal Alouettes in Week 2, to which the Als replied with a convincing 29-11 win).
Here are some figures worth noting through the first month of CFL action:
The biggest indicator may just be the Pick’Em results (it’s not too late to sign up and play, hundreds of people are actually in the negative this season — you’re already ahead!). Of the 20 games so far, fans have collectively chosen only six correct outcomes. Overall, meanwhile, individual fans have a success rate of 40 per cent this season. Even CFL.ca’s Matthew Cauz is struggling with his picks, now on the heels of an 0-4 weekend.
Picking the result of a football game is never easy, but this year the unpredictability has reached new heights. Games are tighter and the finishes are exciting, and best of all the outcome is often in doubt.
