July 8, 2015

CFL.ca Game Notes: A look at Week 3

CFL.ca

CFL.ca Staff
With files from Steve Daniel, Head Statistician

TORONTO – After a Week 2 that saw a Catch of the Year candidate and a dazzling debut at quarterback, the action continues beginning on Thursday night.

The REDBLACKS look to continue their winning ways as they face off against the Eskimos. Matt Nichols will be under centre for Edmonton and is searching for his first victory as he is 0-5 as a starter.

Montreal hopes that Rakeem Cato can match his performance from last week’s debut against a Winnipeg team that is welcoming Drew Willy back at pivot.

The Roughriders are a rare 0-2 but have lost their games only by a combined six points. How will they react after last week’s overtime loss? Well, they will be facing a BC team searching for its first win of the season as well. This is a big divisional matchup.

Finally, the Argonauts square off against the Stampeders in a rare Monday night game. Bo Levi Mitchell has yet to find his groove for Calgary this season.

Equipped with the most up-to-date storylines, roster moves, stats, milestones and trends, enjoy this week’s CFL.ca Game Notes.

» Buy Week 3 Tickets
Thursday, 9:00 pm ET: Ottawa and Edmonton
Friday, 7:00 pm ET: Montreal at Winnipeg

Friday, 10:00 pm ET: Saskatchewan at BC
Monday, 9:00 pm ET: Toronto at Calgary

 


Trends and Highlights

Net Offence Up 11%: CFL games have averaged 725 yards of net offence thus far, an increase of +11% over 2014. If maintained, this 11% jump would be the largest single-season year-to-year increase in CFL history.

Scoring through 8 games up 15%: CFL games have averaged 52.4 points thus far, an increase over 2014 of almost 7 points per game (2014: 45.5 ppg). Scoring is up on offence by 6% (+2.2 ppg) and aided by 5 defensive return TDs.

Going for Two: CFL clubs have elected to go for two on converts 11 out of 41 times in regulation time (27% of the time).

Long kick returns?: Through Week #2 there have been only four “big play” kick returns compared to eight through 2014 Week #2.

Passing in 2015: CFL teams have averaged 278 passing yards per game in 2015. That is 37 more yards than last year’s average of 241 per game. The league-wide passer rating is up to 96.7. That is the highest result in the history of the CFL and far above the overall rating of 85.3 last season.

Sacks down: There have been only 33 QB sacks in 2015, or 4.13 per game compared to 5.42 in 2014 – a drop of 24%. About 70% of those sacks come on 2nd down plays (23 of 33). Through Week #2 QBs have been sacked 33 times compared to 51 times through 2014 Week #2.

Eastern Resurgence: After the first six inter-divisional games in 2014, the West led 5 wins to 1. That result has turned around exactly as the East has won 5 of the first 6 in 2015. Only Calgary has beaten an Eastern team (Hamilton in Week 1). In 2014, the West won 28 0f 40 meetings (70%).

Two & Outs & # of Possessions Way Down: Last year, CFL games averaged 12.2 two-&-outs per game in a generally defensive season. To start 2015, CFL games have averaged only 8.4 – a drop of 31% (In Week #2, teams averaged only 7.8 per game). One very relevant factor is due to a much faster pace of play there is a dramatic drop in average possessions per game: from 30.3 per game in 2014 down to just 26.0 per game.

Kick Return TDs negated: There have been two kick return TDs thus far in 2015 compared to just 12 all of last season. The two might well have been four as two long punt return TDs have also been negated by penalty (Justin Veltung 68 yards and Chris Williams 101 yards).

Red Zone %: Despite the ups & downs of some clubs and their success rate inside the 20-yard line, the CFL-wide average in the Red Zone has changed little in recent years. Since 2012, it has varied only slightly from the TD% rate of 55% each and every year.

Home & Away & Close games: The eight games played thus far have been split evenly between home and road teams. There have been four games already decided by 4 points or less including last week’s 42-40 OT Toronto victory over Saskatchewan.

Penalties: Last year, penalties rose 17% to 21.6 per game and through Week #2 of 2015 is now at 29.0 per game. Offside and Procedure calls have been the major factor with 71 in 8 games compared to just 44 in 2014. The new rules for Illegal Contact on a Receiver have resulted in 21 calls compared to just 5 across the first two weeks of 2015 vs 2014.

OT Game #87: The extra time game last week made it four straight years with at least one Overtime CFL game. It was Toronto’s first since 2009. The Riders have now been involved in 3 of the last 4 OT games going 1-2 since 2012. It was their 25th Overtime game in club history (9-12-4) and Toronto’s 15th (pushing their record to 5-7-3 all-time). It was the 87th OT game in CFL history dating back to 1986 when overtime was first used in regular season games.

Standings Turnarounds: Continuing the trend from Week #1, the three non-playoff clubs from 2014 are now a combined 5-1 in 2015 with only Winnipeg losing a game. Ottawa and Toronto are tied at 2-0 atop the East Division after sub-.500 2014 seasons.

4th Quarter Comebacks: Of the 8 winning clubs thus far, 3 of them have trailed heading into the 4th Quarter (38%). That is about double the pace from 2014 when only 16 clubs who trailed after 45:00 came back to win (20%).

Looking Ahead

At Commonwealth Stadium: The REDBLACKS lost in their trip last year to Edmonton and that extended a streak to 19 consecutive losing visits by any Ottawa team. The last Ottawa win in Edmonton came on August 26, 1983, 17-14 for the Rough Riders and the starting QBs were Warren Moon (43-25-348-2-1) and J.C. Watts (37-16-322-2-0).

Overall Series: The REDBLACKS two defeats versus Edmonton in 2014 made it 13 straight Edmonton wins over any Ottawa team. The last Ottawa win came on August 13, 1995 at Lansdowne Park (18-17).

Close through 45 minutes: The Eskimos remained close last week through most of the game and trailed by only five points into the early part of the final quarter. They scored only four points however in the final 45:00 of the game. 

Matt Nichols: Nichols has gone 0-5 in those games in five career starts. Four of those starts came against Calgary and this will be his first start against an Eastern club.

22 penalties last week: The Eskimos drew a CFL-high 22 penalties last week. The 22 penalties were the most by Edmonton since they drew a club record 23 on July 7, 2006 vs BC (they also had 23 on Jul 15/92). Of their 16 possessions, they drew at least one offensive penalty on 10 of them.

Adarius Bowman: In Week #1, Reilly and Nichols threw 16 passes to Bowman, the single-game high by any receiver in the CFL this season. He caught 6 for 61 yards and Edmonton’s only TD.

6 Turnovers: Last week, Edmonton had six turnovers, the most they have had in a game since Oct 5/13 when they had seven versus Montreal. Despite that, Toronto was able to score only six points off of the Eskimo giveaways. 

Sacks: The Eskimos led all clubs with four Sacks in Week #1 and despite playing only one game have one player atop league ranking with two each. Marcus Howard had two sacks and Almondo Sewell added one plus six tackles.

Starting Off 2-0: The REDBLACKS are at 2-0 through their first two games which included their first-ever road victory. The Renegades started 3-0 in 2004 and they will be trying to match that opening run. The 2004 Ottawa club however finished that year with a 2-13 mark over the final 15 games.

Slow starts / Strong Finishes: Ottawa has won both of their games despite not scoring a single 1st Quarter point thus far. They have been outscored 9-0 in the first 15:00 of play – but on the flip side have dominated the final quarter outscoring opponents 21-0.

Brad Sinopoli: Led all CFL receivers last week with 9 receptions and fell just one short of hitting the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career. He also led in one other very important area – 5 of his receptions were 2nd down conversion catches. He leads the CFL with 6 of those key receptions through two weeks.

29+ rushes per game: The REDBLACKS lead the CFL with 60 rushing attempts through two games, far above their CFL-low 16 rushes per game in 2014. Since 2011, only three other teams have had 29 or more runs over a two-game span as Ottawa has done start 2015 (most recent: Saskatchewan in October 2013).

#2 Defence: The REDBLACKS have allowed only 16.0 points per game thus far, #2 in the CFL. Last year, Ottawa allowed 63 points in their first two contests. Through two games they have allowed only 246 yards per game – a huge improvement over 2014’s #9 overall defence at 373 yards per game allowed.

Henry Burris: Now the #3 all-time CFL passer with 55,826 yards, Edmonton has been his most frequent opponent as a starter with 33 against the Eskimos (19-14-0). It is the largest number of wins he has had against any rival. He is looking for 300-yard game #79 but has now gone 22 games without hitting the 300 mark. 

Chevon Walker: Has averaged 20 carries per game to start 2015 but has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry thus far.

Good roll against Montreal: Against the Alouettes, the Bombers have won the last 4 meetings and 6 out of the last 7. The 4-game winning run is the second-longest for Winnipeg against Montreal behind only a 6-game streak from 1980 to 1983.

Red Zone Success 88%: Winnipeg leads the CFL through two weeks with a Red Zone TD% of 87.5 having cashed in 7 of 8 chances inside the 20. Last year, Winnipeg’s RZ TD% was #7 at 46%.

Drew Willy & Two-and-Outs: With Willy in the game thus far in 2015, the Bombers have only 2 two-and-outs in 14 possessions (14% of them). Without him on the field, they have gone two-and-out 7 times in 11 drives (64%).

All-Time at Investors Group Field: The Blue Bombers have played in their new home 19 times and are 4-15 in those games.

Fast 5-1 start in 2014: Last year the Bombers got off to a 5-1 start – that matched the best 6-game run off the top by the club since a 6-0 start in 1960. In the last 33 seasons, the Bombers also started 5-1 in 2011, 1987 and 1982. They still have a chance to match that 5-1 mark this year starting at home vs the Als.

Flags: The penalty count for Winnipeg is up to 32 for 312 yards, both totals are the most in the CFL thus far.

Justin Veltung: Thus far has a long punt return of 12 yards but that does not include a spectacular 68-yard return TD that was negated by penalty. It is one of two potential kick return TDs called back by return team calls.

Turnovers last week: Against Hamilton the three Winnipeg turnovers led directly to 22 Hamilton points.

Hajrullahu: Has only had one chance for a field goal thus far and he was good from 31 yards out last week. He missed BOTH 32-yard converts last week however.

Post-Calvillo era: Since AC’s last start (August 17, 2013), the Alouettes’ record is 16-15 overall and they have now used six different starting QBs including Rakeem Cato last week (plus: Neiswander, Marsh, Smith, Brink and Crompton).

1-1 Start to 2015: Their 1-1 start this season has now made it FOUR consecutive seasons with a split in their first two games. In the previous two follow-up games (2013-2014), Montreal has dropped to 1-2

#1 Defence: The Alouettes have allowed only 31 points in two games in 2015 – their fewest points allowed in the first two games of a season since 2004 (wins by 33-9 and 32-14 that year, 23 points allowed).

Boris Bede: The Als’ rookie kicker has excelled the most at punting where his 50.0 yard average is among the CFL’s best. He has 7 punts of 50+ yards (and other than one angled punt inside the 20 of 30 yards) has not been below the 46-yard league-wide average even one time. He has yet to miss a FG and his average attempt has come from 31.5 yards out.

Tyrell Sutton: Accounted for 146 of Montreal’s 393 net yards last week (37%) and had 26 touches overall. He is #1 in the CFL in rushing with 204 yards, has 5 runs of 10+ yards and recorded his third career 100-yard game.

Chip Cox #1 in 2015: The Als’ veteran LB leads the CFL through two weeks with 16 tackles.

John Bowman: Entered CFL Week #2 with two sacks to top the league and has the only blocked kick to date. He now has 85 career sacks and ranks as the CFL’s career active leader. All-time, Bowman has moved up to #15 at 85. With one more QB sack he will pass James Curry (85.5) and tie Greg battle at #14 with 86.

Offence at #8 in 2015: The Montreal offence overall has started slowly averaging only 291 yards per game and ranked #8 in the CFL through Week #2.

Holding on: No Montreal player has fumbled yet in 2015 on 129 offensive plays, 12 punts, 4 FG attempts and another 19 kick returns.

Leading at the Quarter Breaks / Staying Ahead: Montreal has led after every quarter so far in 2015 (Q1-Q3). They have trailed only for the final 10:10 of Game #1 vs Ottawa.

Fantasy Notes

QB: Trevor Harris (28.6%), Kevin Glenn (23.4%), Rakeem Cato (17.6%), Henry Burris (9.7%), Bo Levi Mitchell (6.7%)

RB: Jerome Messam (31.2%), Paris Cotton (26.1%), Tyrell Sutton (13.8%), Brandon Whitaker (10.8%), Cameron Marshall (2.8%)

REC: Ryan Smith (47.6%), Nick Moore (14.6%), Ernest Jackson (13.3%), Brad Sinopoli (11.3%), Jeff Fuller (9.0%)

Flex: Paris Cotton (13.0%), Jerome Messam (11.1%), Ryan Smith (8.6%), Brandon Whitaker (7.0%), Tyrell Sutton (5.2%)

Kicker: Boris Bede (33.0%), Paul McCallum (21.6%), Delbert Alvarado (15.2%), Richie Leone (7.3%), Rene Parades (6.1%)

Defence/ST: Ottawa (30.8%), Toronto (20.4%), Montreal (12.6%), Calgary (10.1%), Edmonton (7.2%)